NFL Week 5 Game Plan: Our Spreads vs Vegas, Leans and Players

Vegas says Cowboys by 9.5 on Thursday night. Our numbers say 4.5. Somebody's off by five points.

This is the written version of our Week 5 Game Plan: the four games where our spread disagrees most with Vegas, six players we're watching, the power rankings, a lesson on legs that travel together, and the bets we made. Numbers as of Wednesday, October 7.

| Game | Vegas | Our number | Our lean | |---|---|---|---| | Bucs @ Cowboys | Cowboys −9.5 | Cowboys by 4.5 | ~~Bucs +9.5~~ none: see the update | | Raiders @ Pats | Pats −3.5 | Pats by 7.3 | Pats −3.5 | | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars −7 | Jaguars by 10.2 | Jaguars −7 | | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals −7 | Bengals by 4 | Dolphins +7 |

Last week's tape#

• Boom Board Picks went 1–3. The Boom Teaser cashed (Cowboys +8.5, Seahawks −1). The lottery ticket died when Jared Goff threw one touchdown and we needed two. The Thursday anti-boom special lost when Deshaun Watson threw for 268 against an under of 187.5. On Monday, Chris Olave got his yards, didn't score, and the Saints lost by 21. That's −2.17 units on the week and +2.03 units on the season. Every loss stays up.
• Boom Yards (predictions, not bets): 4 of 9 top-rated players had a big game. Joe Burrow threw for 428; Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua and Olave all cleared 100. Everyone else hits about one time in six. The misses: Jonathan Taylor finished five yards short, and Jahmyr Gibbs had 46.
• Boom TD!: 3 of 11. Sam LaPorta, George Kittle and Brock Bowers scored. Tyler Warren, our only Elite, did not.
• Our spread against Vegas: 16 games, and 12 landed on our side of the line. Three didn't, one pushed. That's one week.

Power rankings#

Built from every snap and adjusted for who each team played. Number one is still the Jaguars, then the Rams, Seahawks, 49ers and Chiefs.

• Riser: the Falcons, up nine spots after scoring 45 on the Saints.
• Faller: the Saints, down nine. Same game.
• The basement: the Jets, the Dolphins and, 32nd, the Titans.
• The Cowboys: the fourth-best passing offense in football and the worst pass defense. That nets out to 23rd, and it's why every Dallas game is a track meet.

All 32 teams, with each unit's rank: power rankings.

Lesson: legs that travel together#

When a receiver scores a touchdown, he clears 70 yards 48% of the time. When he doesn't score, 18%. Same player, same night. His yards and his touchdown aren't two coin flips; they're one story.

It works for teams too: when a running back scores, his team covers 60% of the time, against 42% when he doesn't.

That's how to build a same-game parlay: pick the story, then check the price. The new slip does the math. Tap the + on any player or line and it shows what the whole ticket is really worth. The longer version: how to bet same-game parlays.

Myth buster: are teasers a sucker bet?#

Mostly, yes. We checked every spread since 2006. Tease one six points and it wins 69% of the time. A two-team teaser at −120 needs each leg to win 74%.

The exceptions are the legs that cross both 3 and 7:

• Underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5, teased to +7.5 or +8.5: 77–79%
• Favorites of exactly −7, teased down to −1: 76%

We only play the exceptions. This week's list is on Boom Teasers.

How we get our number#

Each team's power rating from the play-by-play, plus the touchdowns our TD board expects from its starters, plus home field. New this week: we project the total the same way, and both numbers are on every game page. The formulas are on how it works.

Bucs @ Cowboys#

Vegas has Dallas by 9.5. We have Dallas by 4.5, the biggest gap of the week. The Cowboys are scoring 30 a game and allowing 28. Lean: Bucs +9.5. (Update: with Baker Mayfield out, we no longer call this a lean; our number doesn't account for the quarterback.) CeeDee Lamb is top-rated on Boom Yards at 38% for 100 yards. The game page has every player and line.

Raiders @ Pats#

Pats by 3.5 in Vegas; we say a touchdown. Lean: Pats −3.5. The game page.

Eagles @ Jaguars#

The early one, 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Jaguars by 7; we say 10. It's our number one team. Lean: Jaguars −7. The game page.

Bengals @ Dolphins#

Bengals by 7; we say 4. Lean: Dolphins +7, or do what we did and tease Cincinnati down to −1. The game page.

Players we're watching#

| Player | Game | Our numbers | |---|---|---| | Matthew Stafford | vs Bills, Monday | 294 projected passing yards; 57% to clear 275, the best number on the board | | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | vs 49ers | 37% of Seattle's targets; 42% for 100 yards, 44% to score | | Jahmyr Gibbs | at Cardinals | 82% of Detroit's carries; 63% to score | | Trey McBride | vs Lions | A third of Arizona's targets; 36% for 70 yards, 45% to score | | Javonte Williams | vs Bucs, Thursday | 62% to score, with Dallas expected to put up 28 | | Michael Wilson (the sleeper) | vs Lions | 27% of Arizona's targets in the week's highest total; 40% to score |

Three of the six are in Lions @ Cardinals, the shootout of the week at a total of 54.5. Every starter, sorted either way: Boom Yards and Boom TD!.

The other 11 games#

• Lions @ Cardinals: total 54.5. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown are top-rated too.
• Bills @ Rams (Monday): Rams −2.5; we say 5. Nacua and Davante Adams are both top-rated to score.
• Browns @ Jets: tied for the lowest total of the week. The Browns are a teaser leg.
• Colts @ Steelers: the Colts are a teaser leg; Tyler Warren is top-rated to score.
• Texans @ Titans: Texans by a touchdown. We agree, and they're a teaser leg.
• Vikings @ Saints: we agree with Vegas. The Saints are a teaser leg, and Olave is top-rated again.
• 49ers @ Seahawks: dead even with Vegas.
• No lean: Broncos @ Chargers, Ravens @ Falcons, Giants @ Commanders, Bears @ Packers.

Every game, biggest gap first: this week's games.

Board leaders and our picks#

Boom Yards: Stafford 57%, Goff 48%, Jacoby Brissett 42%, Smith-Njigba 42%, Nacua 40%.

Boom TD!, to score: St. Brown 49%, Nacua 48%, Davante Adams 46%, McBride 45%.

Update, Sunday: more picks have gone up since this was written.

• Thursday's early pick cashed at +1600: Bucky Irving to score, Irving 50+ rushing yards, Cade Otton 25+ and Bucs +9.5. The recap.

• Thursday's SGP of the week lost at +480, when CeeDee Lamb left injured. The pick.

• Sunday's lottery pick, half a unit at +11453: Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Colston Loveland and Colby Parkinson all to score. The pick.

• Sunday's two-favorite parlay, one unit at +211: Jaguars −6.5 and Patriots −2.5. The pick.

The rest of our picks this week are Boom Teasers, round-robin style. Six legs clear the price: the Saints, Browns, 49ers and Colts as underdogs, the Texans and Bengals as favorites. We played every pair: 15 two-team teasers at one unit each, recorded at −120.

We posted them Monday at Monday's lines, and several have moved since. A half point can put a leg on or off the list, so check the number your book is offering.

Lines and chances as of October 7, 2026. 21+. For entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.