PHI @ JAX
Sun 9:30a · outdoors
JAX −7
Vegas spread
JAX −10.2
our spread
3.2 pts
apart · we lean JAX
42.5 · ours 45.4
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (JAX #1 on the field, #10 in the market; PHI #19 vs #12).
- Our total is 45.4, 2.9 over the line: the two teams' starters project to 4.8 touchdowns, with a typical outdoor wind (no forecast yet).
- Biggest mismatch: JAX passing (#3 offense) against PHI's #12 pass defense.
- Pace: about 117 plays expected between them.
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
PHI · power rank #19
Jalen Hurts
QB
17%
275+ yds
Saquon Barkley
RB
12%
100+ yds
DeVonta Smith
WR
24%
100+ yds
Dontayvion Wicks
WR
9%
100+ yds
Makai Lemon
WR
1%
100+ yds
Dallas Goedert
TE
10%
70+ yds
JAX · power rank #1
Trevor Lawrence
QB
29%
275+ yds
Bhayshul Tuten
RB
16%
100+ yds
Parker Washington
WR
13%
100+ yds
Jakobi Meyers
WR
8%
100+ yds
Brian Thomas Jr.
WR
4%
100+ yds
Brenton Strange
TE
10%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
DeVonta Smith over 72.5 rec yds + DeVonta Smith anytime TD
17%11% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 48% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +477.
Parker Washington over 60.5 rec yds + Parker Washington anytime TD
22%14% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 48% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +354.
Jalen Hurts 2+ pass TDs + Over 42.5
25%17% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +305.
Trevor Lawrence 2+ pass TDs + Over 42.5
35%26% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +189.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 45.4, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
48%
win
6%
push
46%
lose
Fair price −105 · at −110 it's overpriced: about −2¢ per $1
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.