TB @ DAL
Thu 8:15p
DAL −9.5
Vegas spread
DAL −4.5
our spread
5.0 pts
apart · we lean TB
47.5 · ours 48.6
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (DAL #23 on the field, #14 in the market; TB #22 vs #22).
- Our total is 48.6, 1.1 over the line: the two teams' starters project to 5.6 touchdowns, with a typical outdoor wind (no forecast yet).
- Biggest mismatch: TB passing (#26 offense) against DAL's #32 pass defense.
- Pace: about 125 plays expected between them.
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
TB · power rank #22
Baker Mayfield
QB
21%
275+ yds
Bucky Irving
RB
12%
100+ yds
Emeka Egbuka
WR
9%
100+ yds
Ted Hurst III
WR
8%
100+ yds
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
8%
100+ yds
Cade Otton
TE
13%
70+ yds
DAL · power rank #23
Dak Prescott
QB
40%
275+ yds
Javonte Williams
RB
14%
100+ yds
CeeDee LambElite
WR
38%
100+ yds
George Pickens
WR
22%
100+ yds
Ryan Flournoy
WR
8%
100+ yds
Jake Ferguson
TE
3%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
Cade Otton over 40.5 rec yds + Cade Otton anytime TD
13%8% if unrelated
A TE who scores clears 50 yards 44% of the time, 19% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +684.
CeeDee Lamb over 90.5 rec yds + CeeDee Lamb anytime TD
26%17% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 48% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +292.
Baker Mayfield 2+ pass TDs + Over 47.5
26%18% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +282.
Dak Prescott 2+ pass TDs + Over 47.5
39%31% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +155.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 48.6, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
52%
win
0%
push
48%
lose
Fair price −110 · at −110 it's about fair
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.