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CIN @ MIA

Sun 1p · outdoors

CIN −7

Vegas spread

CIN −4

our spread

3.0 pts

apart · we lean MIA

42.5 · ours 44.2

total: Vegas, then ours

The story

  • Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (MIA #31 on the field, #32 in the market; CIN #17 vs #11).
  • Our total is 44.2, 1.7 over the line: the two teams' starters project to 4.5 touchdowns, with a typical outdoor wind (no forecast yet).
  • Biggest mismatch: CIN passing (#15 offense) against MIA's #31 pass defense.
  • Pace: about 116 plays expected between them.
  • Out: Andrei Iosivas (CIN WR, IR), De'Von Achane (MIA RB, IR).

Players

our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more

CIN · power rank #17

Joe Burrow

QB

252

37%

275+ yds

Chase Brown

RB

66

15%

100+ yds

Ja'Marr Chase

WR

72

24%

100+ yds

Tee Higgins

WR

66

18%

100+ yds

Colbie Young

WR

28

2%

100+ yds

Mike Gesicki

TE

27

4%

70+ yds

MIA · power rank #31

Malik Willis

QB

196

15%

275+ yds

Ollie Gordon II

RB

63

12%

100+ yds

Caleb Douglas

WR

50

8%

100+ yds

Malik Washington

WR

43

4%

100+ yds

Chris Bell

WR

30

3%

100+ yds

Greg Dulcich

TE

28

4%

70+ yds

Legs that go together

Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.

Caleb Douglas over 50.5 rec yds + Caleb Douglas anytime TD

10%6% if unrelated

A WR who scores clears 70 yards 48% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +864.

Ja'Marr Chase over 72.5 rec yds + Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD

24%16% if unrelated

A WR who scores clears 70 yards 48% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +323.

Malik Willis 2+ pass TDs + Over 42.5

20%14% if unrelated

The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +395.

Joe Burrow 2+ pass TDs + Over 42.5

35%26% if unrelated

The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +187.

The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.

Matchups

Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).

CIN passing vs MIA#15 off vs #31 def
MIA passing vs CIN#24 off vs #24 def
CIN rushing vs MIA#12 off vs #12 def
MIA rushing vs CIN#22 off vs #23 def

Power rankings for all 32 teams →

Game lines

What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.

CIN −749%fair +105
MIA +751%fair −105
CIN to win75%fair −296
MIA to win25%fair +302
Over 42.551%fair −103
Under 42.549%fair +103

Our total, 44.2, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.

▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total

Spread

LineChanceFair odds
CIN wins (moneyline)75%−296
CIN by 3+69%−225
CIN by 4+lands on 3: 8%61%−159
CIN by 7+52%−109
CIN by 8+lands on 7: 6%46%+119
CIN by 10+42%+136
CIN by 14+36%+178
MIA +6push 4%44%+119
MIA +7the linepush 6%48%−105
MIA +8push 3%54%−126
MIA wins (moneyline)25%+300

Total

OverChanceFair odds
Over 35.570%−237
Over 38.563%−168
Over 41.554%−115
Over 42.5the line51%−103
Over 43.548%+110
Over 46.538%+162
Over 49.530%+231

Your line

48%

win

6%

push

46%

lose

Fair price −105 · at −110 it's overpriced: about −2¢ per $1

Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.

Teaser legs

A 6-point teaser leg works when it has won often enough to beat −120 (73.9%).

MIA +7 teased to +1360.5% short
CIN −7 teased to −176.4% works

Build a teaser from every leg that works →