NFL Week 6 Picks: 15 Teasers, Two TD Lotteries and Davante Adams

Eighteen picks this week: fifteen Boom Teasers, two touchdown lottery tickets and one single. Every one is a Boom Board Pick: a bet we actually placed, posted before kickoff and tracked on our picks page, win or lose.

Thursday already settled a few things. Denver beat Seattle 17–14, so the Broncos leg of five teasers is in. Our Thursday lottery lost. Here's everything, with what's still to play.

| Pick | Units | Price | Status | |---|---|---|---| | 15 Boom Teasers (round robin) | 1 each | −120 | Broncos legs won; Sunday legs to play | | Thursday lottery: Barner TD, Franklin TD, Broncos +7.5 | 0.5 | +4290 (30% boost) | Lost | | Davante Adams 90+ receiving yards | 1 | +380 (30% boost) | Sunday 4:05pm ET | | Sunday lottery: Pitts TD, Wilson TD, Tucker TD | 0.5 | +6067 (30% boost) | Sunday from 1pm ET |

The Boom Teasers: six legs, every pair#

A 6-point teaser moves each spread six points your way, and both legs have to win. Most teasers lose money. The ones that work cross 3 and 7, the two most common NFL margins: underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased past 7, and 7-point favorites teased under 3. Same rule as Week 5: we take every leg on Boom Teasers that crosses both and clears our standard −120 (a leg needs to win 73.9%), then bet every pair.

Six legs cleared, so that's fifteen teasers:

| Leg | Teased | Since 2006, in games like this | |---|---|---| | Broncos vs Seahawks (Thursday) | +2.5 → +8.5 | 77.0% (275–82). Won, 17–14 | | Texans at Jaguars (9:30am ET, London) | +2.5 → +8.5 | 77.0% (275–82) | | Buccaneers vs Steelers | +2.5 → +8.5 | 77.0% (275–82) | | Colts vs Titans | −7 → −1 | 76.5% (215–66) | | Giants vs Saints | +1.5 → +7.5 | 79.7% (98–25) | | Eagles vs Panthers | +1.5 → +7.5 | 79.7% (98–25) |

Every teaser is recorded at −120, whatever price we actually got, so the record is one a follower can match.

Three more legs showed up as clearing on the board, and we left them out: Chiefs −8.5, Bills −5.5 and Commanders +7.5. Each cleared only because of a small group of games (33 to 47). Over all games, those spreads have won 64% to 71%, under the price.

One line has moved since we bet: the Eagles are now +3, which doesn't clear. Our ticket stays at +1.5 teased to +7.5, the line we got.

Thursday's lottery: half of it came in#

Barner to score, Franklin to score and the Broncos +7.5, at +4290 with a 30% boost. We had it at about 1 in 26; the price needed 1 in 44.

Denver covered easily, winning outright. Neither touchdown came: AJ Barner had 16 yards and Troy Franklin 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 134 yards and didn't score either. Half a unit lost.

Davante Adams 90+ receiving yards#

One unit at +380, a 30% boost on +292.

• The matchup. Arizona's pass defense is 30th in our power rankings, and cornerback Starling Thomas V and safeties Wydett Williams Jr. and Andrew Wingard are out.
• The role. Adams gets 23% of the Rams' targets and 38% of their air yards. His snaps have climbed from 54% in Week 1 to 95% and 73% the last two weeks.
• The catch. He's boom-or-bust: 26, 195, 137, 32 and 51 yards this season. His board number says 32% for 90+. We shade it to about 29% for those swings.
• The price. +380 needs 20.8%.

The risk is the score. The Rams are 12.5-point favorites. If they're up big in the third quarter, they'll run the ball and the fourth quarter won't help.

Sunday's lottery: three touchdowns#

Half a unit at +6067 with a 30% boost: Kyle Pitts, Michael Wilson and Tre Tucker each to score.

| Leg | Game | Our TD chance | Why | |---|---|---|---| | Kyle Pitts | Bears at Falcons, 1pm ET, total 52.5 | 30% | a tight end with targets, in the day's third-highest total | | Michael Wilson | Cardinals at Rams, 4:05pm ET | 38% | 25% of Arizona's targets, and they should be throwing from behind | | Tre Tucker | Bills at Raiders, 4:25pm ET, total 53.5 | 29% to 33% | Dont'e Thornton Jr., Tyler Scott, Jack Bech and Corey Rucker are all out |

Tucker's number is the shakiest: he has 2 touchdowns in his last 16 games. We still took him over Khalil Shakir, whose record is the same, because Tucker was +290 and Shakir +225.

A word on how we picked them. Our touchdown model runs high on low-volume receivers (16% of targets or less): this season they scored 9 touchdowns where we expected 14. Every leg here gets a real share of targets.

Real talk#

• Seventeen units this week, fifteen of them in teasers. Each leg is in five tickets, so one bad leg sinks a third of the set.
• Teasers are the steady part, and they still lose. About 4 in 10 two-leg teasers miss, even with legs this good.
• Last week shows it. Our Week 5 round robin went 6–9, down 4 units: two of its six legs lost, and each was in five tickets. The legs are in the Week 5 Game Plan.
• The lotteries are long shots. Thursday's already lost. Sunday's misses about 29 times in 30.
• The boosts do a lot of the work. Adams 90+ at +292 without the boost is worth about 14 cents per dollar to us; with it, about 39. Boosts differ by book and by state; here's what a boost is really worth.

Odds and chances as of October 18, 2026. 21+. For entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.