NFL Week 4 Game Plan: Our Spreads vs Vegas, Leans and Best Props

Our numbers say Bears by 9.5. Vegas says 3.5. One of us is about to get roasted in the comments.

This is the written version of our Week 4 Game Plan: the four games where our spread disagrees with Vegas, the power rankings, the key numbers that decide spreads, and the best player props on the slate. Numbers as of Tuesday, September 29.

| Game | Vegas | Our number | Our lean | |---|---|---|---| | Jets @ Bears | Bears −3.5 | Bears by 9.5 | Bears −3.5 | | Pats @ Bills | Bills −7 | Bills by 4.5 | Pats +7 | | Cowboys @ Texans | Texans −2.5 | Texans by 6 | Texans −2.5 | | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks −7 | Seahawks by 10.5 | Seahawks −7 |

Last week's tape#

• Boom Board Picks: two picks. The safe parlay went 4 for 4 and cashed at +430. The lottery ticket missed. Picks are +4.2 units since launch.
• The yardage board (predictions, not bets): its top-rated players hit 2 of 7. Matthew Stafford threw for 390 when he needed 300. Brock Purdy threw for 297, three yards short.
• The touchdown board's top-rated players went 0 for 10. For the season they're still scoring 42% of the time, better than the 34% we projected. Every miss stays up on the site.

Power rankings#

Built from every snap and adjusted for who each team played. Number one: the Jacksonville Jaguars. They just beat New England 35–6, and Vegas still has them 13th.

• Risers: the Jaguars and the Bengals, up five spots each.
• Fallers: the Packers, down five, and the Patriots, down three.
• The basement: the Jets, the Dolphins and, 32nd, the Titans.

See every team on Boom Matchups.

Key numbers 101#

NFL games end by exactly 3 points about one time in seven, and by exactly 7 about one in twelve. That's field goals and touchdowns.

So if a line sits at 2.5, getting +3.5 instead of +2.5 takes you from 50% to 59%. That extra half point is the hook, and sometimes it's worth paying a little extra juice for.

Myth buster: always bet the primetime under?#

We tested 20 years of it: unders hit 49% in one decade and 54% in the next. That's not a system. It's a coin flip with a good PR team. (More myths, tested: does familiarity matter?)

How we get our spread#

Three things: how good each team has actually played, how many touchdowns we expect each to score, and home field. The formula, the weights and our honest record are on how Boom Matchups works.

Jets @ Bears#

Chicago's laying 3.5; we have them by 9.5, our biggest gap of the week. Last week the Bears beat Philadelphia 27–7 and the Jets lost in Detroit. We rank the Bears 7th and the Jets 30th.

• Chicago's passing game faces one of the five worst pass defenses in football, and the Bears run the second-most plays in the league.
• Anytime TD: Luther Burden 31%, Colston Loveland 28%.
• Lean: Bears −3.5.

Pats @ Bills#

Buffalo's laying a touchdown. Yes, the Patriots just lost 35–6 in Jacksonville, and yes, we're still leaning Patriots. On the field, these teams rank 6th and 8th. Vegas treats Buffalo like the best team in football and New England like the 15th. Our number: Bills by 4.5.

• Seven is the second most common margin, so +7.5 beats +7. Shop for the hook.
• Props: James Cook 27% to run for 100, DJ Moore 33% to score.
• Lean: Patriots +7.

Cowboys @ Texans#

Houston's laying 2.5; we have them by 6. The juiciest matchup on the board: Dallas has the worst pass defense in the league.

• Is Nico Collins back? He's missed two weeks with a hamstring. If he plays, he's 32% to score.
• C.J. Stroud: 26% for 275 passing yards. CeeDee Lamb: 25% for 100 receiving.
• Lean: Texans −2.5. Don't let it creep to 3.

Chargers @ Seahawks#

Vegas says Seattle by 7; we say 10.5. Seattle is 2nd in our rankings with the best run defense in football, and the Chargers' run game is 25th.

• One asterisk: half of Seattle's snaps this year came with Drew Lock at quarterback. Sam Darnold starts Sunday.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 41% for 100 receiving yards, the best shot at a big day on the whole slate.
• Lean: Seahawks −7.

The other 12 games#

| Game | Our take | Props worth a look | |---|---|---| | Steelers @ Browns (Thu) | Our number: Browns by 1. No lean in the video. Total 38.5, tied for the lowest. | +3.5 beats +2.5 by a lot | | Colts @ Commanders | We agree with Vegas. Pass. | Tyler Warren 42% to score (best TD chance on the slate); Jonathan Taylor 32% for 100 | | Titans @ Ravens | Laying 11.5 is a lot. Pass. | Derrick Henry 40% for 100; Zay Flowers 35% to score | | Jaguars @ Bengals | Our number likes the Jags; no lean. Total 51.5, the week's highest. | Burrow 41% for 275, Lawrence 36%, Ja'Marr Chase 35% to score | | Cardinals @ Giants | Pass. | Trey McBride 34% to score | | Rams @ Eagles | Close to Vegas. Pass. | Puka Nacua 30% for 100, 36% to score | | Packers @ Buccaneers | Our number has Tampa by 1.5; no lean. | Green Bay's run game (29th) vs Tampa's run D (4th) | | Dolphins @ Vikings | Pass. Total tied for the lowest. | | | Chiefs @ Raiders | We agree with Vegas. | Mahomes 39% for 275 | | Broncos @ 49ers | Our number: Niners by 6; no lean. About 9% of these land on exactly 3. | George Kittle 27% for 70 | | Lions @ Panthers (SNF) | Our number: Lions by 1.5 vs −3.5. Pass (three Lions are on our lottery ticket). | Gibbs 35% for 100, Goff 33% for 275, Amon-Ra 30% for 100 | | Falcons @ Saints (MNF) | We agree with the 3. | Chris Olave and Bijan Robinson, both about 30% for 100 |

Board leaders and the lottery ticket#

• Big yardage: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs. (Boom Yards)
• Anytime TD: Tyler Warren, Deebo Samuel, Sam LaPorta, Puka Nacua. (Boom TD!)
• Our lottery ticket: Warren and LaPorta to score, Amon-Ra St. Brown over 59.5 receiving yards, Goff two touchdown passes. +1149, doubled to +2299 with a 100% profit boost. It's priced to hit about 4% of the time; our legs multiply to almost 6%, and the Lions legs help each other. How we price a parlay like this.

New Game Plan every Tuesday on YouTube. 21+. For entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.