Boom Matchups · Week 4
Every line as a real chance: what the spread and total say will happen, at every alternate line, with fair odds. Plus weekly power rankings and the matchups that move player props.
PIT @ CLE
Thu 8:15p
PIT −2.5O/U 38.5ours: CLE by 0.9implied PIT 20.5 – CLE 18
Power rank: PIT #19 · CLE #26key number
→ Dog +3.5 wins 59%, +2.5 only 50% (9% land on 3). The hook is worth paying for up to −141.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
IND @ WAS
Sun 9:30a
IND −3.5O/U 47.5ours: IND by 4.2implied IND 25.5 – WAS 22
Power rank: IND #14 · WAS #28key number
→ Favorite −2.5 wins 55%, −3.5 only 46% (9% land on 3). Buying down to −2.5 is worth it up to −123.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
TEN @ BAL
Sun 1p
BAL −11.5O/U 43.5ours: BAL by 11.2implied BAL 27.5 – TEN 16
Power rank: TEN #32 · BAL #10
→ TEN wins outright 16% of the time in games like this: a fair moneyline is +528.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
NE @ BUF
Sun 1p
BUF −7O/U 48.5ours: BUF by 4.5implied BUF 27.75 – NE 20.75
Power rank: NE #8 · BUF #6key number
→ 6% of games like this land exactly on 7: a push at −7 / +7.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
NYJ @ CHI
Sun 1p
CHI −3.5O/U 42.5ours: CHI by 9.5implied CHI 23 – NYJ 19.5
Power rank: NYJ #30 · CHI #7key number
→ Favorite −2.5 wins 55%, −3.5 only 46% (9% land on 3). Buying down to −2.5 is worth it up to −123.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
JAX @ CIN
Sun 1p
CIN −2.5O/U 51.5ours: JAX by 3.6implied CIN 27 – JAX 24.5
Power rank: JAX #1 · CIN #16key number
→ Dog +3.5 wins 59%, +2.5 only 50% (9% land on 3). The hook is worth paying for up to −141.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
DAL @ HOU
Sun 1p
HOU −2.5O/U 47.5ours: HOU by 6.0implied HOU 25 – DAL 22.5
Power rank: DAL #25 · HOU #11key number
→ Dog +3.5 wins 59%, +2.5 only 50% (9% land on 3). The hook is worth paying for up to −141.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
ARI @ NYG
Sun 1p
ARI −1.5O/U 44.5ours: ARI by 0.5implied ARI 23 – NYG 21.5
Power rank: ARI #21 · NYG #29
→ NYG wins outright 47% of the time in games like this: a fair moneyline is +115.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
LA @ PHI
Sun 1p
LA −2.5O/U 44.5ours: LA by 3.9implied LA 23.5 – PHI 21
Power rank: LA #3 · PHI #15key number
→ Dog +3.5 wins 59%, +2.5 only 50% (9% land on 3). The hook is worth paying for up to −141.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
GB @ TB
Sun 1p
GB −3.5O/U 39.5ours: TB by 1.5implied GB 21.5 – TB 18
Power rank: GB #20 · TB #23key number
→ Favorite −2.5 wins 55%, −3.5 only 46% (9% land on 3). Buying down to −2.5 is worth it up to −123.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
MIA @ MIN
Sun 4:05p
MIN −10.5O/U 38.5ours: MIN by 9.5implied MIN 24.5 – MIA 14
Power rank: MIA #31 · MIN #13
→ Lowest total of the week (38.5): fewer points expected, so volume props shrink.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
KC @ LV
Sun 4:25p
KC −4.5O/U 47.5ours: KC by 4.7implied KC 26 – LV 21.5
Power rank: KC #5 · LV #27
→ LV wins outright 36% of the time in games like this: a fair moneyline is +181.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
LAC @ SEA
Sun 4:25p
SEA −7O/U 42.5ours: SEA by 10.5implied SEA 24.75 – LAC 17.75
Power rank: LAC #22 · SEA #2key number
→ 6% of games like this land exactly on 7: a push at −7 / +7.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
DEN @ SF
Sun 4:25p
SF −3O/U 46.5ours: SF by 6.0implied SF 24.75 – DEN 21.75
Power rank: DEN #9 · SF #4key number
→ 9% of games like this land exactly on 3: a push at −3 / +3.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
DET @ CAR
Sun 8:20p
DET −3.5O/U 50.5ours: DET by 1.3implied DET 27 – CAR 23.5
Power rank: DET #12 · CAR #17key number
→ Favorite −2.5 wins 55%, −3.5 only 46% (9% land on 3). Buying down to −2.5 is worth it up to −123.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
ATL @ NO
Mon 8:15p
NO −3O/U 48.5ours: NO by 2.8implied NO 25.75 – ATL 22.75
Power rank: ATL #24 · NO #18key number
→ 9% of games like this land exactly on 3: a push at −3 / +3.
Full ladder, your line, TDs →
Chances come from every NFL game 2006–2026 with a similar line. The implied score is the sportsbook's; “ours” is our projected spread, from the power ratings and Boom TD! (it explains the game; it doesn't beat the line). How accurate it's been · Every formula