Our methodology
How we find the booms
No hunches, no hot takes. Every week two boards crunch the same things a sharp prop bettor checks, for every starting QB, RB, WR and TE: Boom Yards (his chance at a big yardage day) and Boom TD! (his chance to score). One honest number per player, built for same-game parlays.
The whole thing, in one line
- 1
Pull the data
- 2
Build ~50 ideas
- 3
Test on unseen seasons
- 4
Keep what works
- 5
Project his yards
- 6
Chance for any line
- 7
Lock at kickoff
- 8
Grade every call
First: what's a boom?
On Boom Yards, a big yardage day in the stat each position is bet on, at a line the books sell. Big overs: most starters clear them a few times a season. On Boom TD!, 3+ passing TDs for a QB, 2+ TDs for a RB, and an anytime TD for WRs and TEs.
275+
passing yds
a normal starter: 30% of games
100+
rushing yds
a normal starter: 18% of games
100+
receiving yds
a normal starter: 11% of games
70+
receiving yds
a normal starter: 11% of games
The data
Refreshed before every board. Here's what we pull and what we do with it.
Play-by-play
Every snap of every game since 2017: down, distance, score, who threw, who caught, how far downfield.
We roll it up per team, per game: how often they throw when the game is close (so blowouts don't fake it), dropbacks, and how good the QB is per dropback.
Box scores
Every player's yards, targets, air yards and carries, game by game, back to 2016: every QB, RB, WR and TE, starts and part-time games.
Recent yards (last few games blended with the season), share of the team's targets and air yards, share of the carries, and how swingy a QB is week to week.
Vegas lines
The spread and over/under for every game.
Turned into implied team points: a team expected to score 30 throws and runs for a lot more than one expected to score 17. It quietly prices in domes, cold and backup QBs too.
Weather
Kickoff wind: game-time readings for history, a forecast for this week's outdoor games. Domes count as calm.
Wind is the one weather factor the lines don't fully price. It only moves QBs, and only down.
Injury reports
Official Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags for both teams.
When a top receiver or back is ruled out, we show whose targets or carries just opened up. Questionable players get their chance cut to ×0.9.
Snaps + depth charts
Who's on the field and who's starting this week, including backups filling in.
Only starters get scored. For QBs we use the confirmed starter, so a relief appearance never counts as a start.
Matchups
Yards each defense allows to each position, built from the same box scores.
A soft run defense matters a lot for RBs; for pass catchers, their own role matters more than the matchup.
One hard rule across all of it: only what was known before kickoff. A model that peeks at the future looks brilliant in testing and useless on Sunday, so we test for leaks automatically.
How we chose what matters
1
Build every idea
About 50 candidate factors for every starter in every game, 22K+ player-games since 2019.
2
Test on games it hasn't seen
Learn from six seasons, predict the seventh. Then do it again for every season. No peeking.
3
Keep only what helps
A factor stays only if it improves predictions in most seasons. Extra factors that only add noise make it worse, so they go.
4
Every position on its own
What makes a QB throw for 275 isn't what makes a back run for 100. Each position got its own search and its own weights.
Then we pitted it against a black-box model allowed to use all 50 ideas. The simple one won or tied at every position, and it can tell you why.
What each position is judged on
Straight from the live model (v3.0). Bar = how much of the score each factor carries.
QB275+ passing yds
Team points24%
Points Vegas expects his team to score
Yards lately17%
His yards per game in his stat: this season blended with last (RBs: last 8 starts)
Pass-happy team15%
How often his team throws when the game is close
Opp pass defense13%
Passing yards this defense allows per game
Wind13%
Wind at kickoff (indoors = calm). Wind cuts passing yards
Pocket passer12%
How little he runs. QBs who run less throw more
Game total6%
The over/under: how much scoring Vegas expects in the game
RB100+ rushing yds
Yards lately30%
His yards per game in his stat: this season blended with last (RBs: last 8 starts)
Opp run defense24%
Rushing yards this defense allows per game to RBs
Carry share23%
His share of his team's carries lately
Run-heavy team16%
How few passes his team throws per game
Offense quality7%
How efficient his team's offense is (EPA per dropback)
WR100+ receiving yds
Yards lately43%
His yards per game in his stat: this season blended with last (RBs: last 8 starts)
Target quality34%
His share of team targets and downfield air yards (WOPR)
Game total15%
The over/under: how much scoring Vegas expects in the game
Injured teammates8%
Targets freed up by receivers ruled out this week
TE70+ receiving yds
Target quality35%
His share of team targets and downfield air yards (WOPR)
Yards lately29%
His yards per game in his stat: this season blended with last (RBs: last 8 starts)
Snap share20%
His share of his team's snaps lately
Team points16%
Points Vegas expects his team to score
From yards to a %
First we project his yards: a number and a likely range. Then we lean on 20,000+ past games to learn how far real games land from a projection, big days and duds included. That spread turns one projection into a chance for any line: the boom line, or the one on your book.
The game keeps changing (300-yard passing days have halved since 2020, which is why the QB boom is 275 now), so recent seasons count more, and every week the projections adjust to how the league is actually running right now, using only games already played.
| Position | Elite | Strong |
|---|---|---|
| QB 275+ | 45%+ | 40%+ |
| RB 100+ | 40%+ | 30%+ |
| WR 100+ | 35%+ | 30%+ |
| TE 70+ | 35%+ | 30%+ |
Each position gets its own bar: a 40% shot at 275 passing yards and a 40% shot at 100 receiving are different calls.
On 2025, a season it never trained on, 30% of picks boomed vs 13% of all starters: 2.3× the field.
Reading a % like a prop bettor
Every player page on the board has a “your line” gauge: type the book's line and get our chance of over and under. Here's the price where a chance breaks even:
| Our chance | Fair odds | Means |
|---|---|---|
| 20% | +400 | long shot |
| 25% | +300 | long shot |
| 30% | +233 | a real shot |
| 35% | +186 | a real shot |
| 40% | +150 | a real shot |
| 50% | -100 | more likely than not |
Longer odds than fair = value, if you trust the number. In a same-game parlay, legs from one game move together (a shootout lifts the QB and his receivers at once), so books price SGPs differently from separate bets.
How we play it
Bonus first. Then better legs.
Same-game parlays carry a bigger house edge than straight bets: the book prices in how legs from one game move together, and then some. It's also where sportsbooks hand out the most: SGP boosts, bet-and-gets, bonus bets and profit boosts, every week. So our rule is simple: we only play SGPs with a bonus attached, and we recommend you do the same.
The bonus covers the house's cut; the boards are about the legs. Pick the ones our model rates, check our chance at the book's line against the fair price, keep an eye on legs that depend on the same game script, and track every slip so you know where you really stand. Nobody cashes every week. The goal is to be ahead when the season ends. See the bets we place ourselves →
The honesty rules
Locked at kickoff
Once a game starts, its numbers can't be changed or deleted. The database refuses.
Every miss shown
Results show every rating, hit or miss, week by week. Nothing gets quietly dropped.
Tested blind
Yards numbers were tested on a season the model never trained on (2025); every TD season since 2019 was predicted only from the seasons before it.
Honest about limits
Some players boom without warning. The board can rate them a threat, but can't time every big week.
Now go find a boom
Free. Tail or fade our numbers, log your props and SGPs, share them with your crew.
Built by Tony at LFG Ventures. For fun, not betting advice. 21+. Terms