LV @ NE
Sun 1p · outdoors
NE −3.5
Vegas spread
NE −7.3
our spread
3.8 pts
apart · we lean NE
45.5 · ours 44.4
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (NE #7 on the field, #15 in the market; LV #26 vs #26).
- Our total is 44.4, 1.1 under the line: the two teams' starters project to 4.9 touchdowns, with a typical outdoor wind (no forecast yet).
- Biggest mismatch: NE passing (#6 offense) against LV's #18 pass defense.
- Pace: about 121 plays expected between them.
- Out: Jack Bech (LV WR, IR).
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
LV · power rank #26
Kirk Cousins
QB
22%
275+ yds
Ashton Jeanty
RB
14%
100+ yds
Tre Tucker
WR
8%
100+ yds
Jalen Nailor
WR
1%
100+ yds
Cody White
WR
1%
100+ yds
Brock Bowers
TE
22%
70+ yds
NE · power rank #7
Drake Maye
QB
26%
275+ yds
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
9%
100+ yds
Mack Hollins
WR
6%
100+ yds
DeMario Douglas
WR
5%
100+ yds
Romeo Doubs
WR
5%
100+ yds
Hunter Henry
TE
7%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
Hunter Henry over 30.5 rec yds + Hunter Henry anytime TD
16%11% if unrelated
A TE who scores clears 50 yards 44% of the time, 19% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +506.
Brock Bowers over 48.5 rec yds + Brock Bowers anytime TD
20%14% if unrelated
A TE who scores clears 50 yards 44% of the time, 19% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +399.
Kirk Cousins 2+ pass TDs + Over 45.5
30%22% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +235.
Drake Maye 2+ pass TDs + Over 45.5
34%26% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +190.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 44.4, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
54%
win
0%
push
46%
lose
Fair price −117 · at −110 it's value: about +3¢ per $1
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.