Four Tight Ends, One Ticket: Our +11453 Week 5 Lottery Parlay

Four tight ends to score, across three games, on one ticket. It pays +11453, and it will almost certainly lose. Here's why we bet it anyway, and why it's only half a unit.

It's a Boom Board Pick: a bet we actually placed, posted before kickoff and tracked on our picks page win or lose. Four legs, half a unit, at DraftKings.

| Leg | Game | Our board says | |---|---|---| | Trey McBride anytime TD | Cardinals vs Lions, Sunday 4:25pm ET | 44% | | Sam LaPorta anytime TD | Lions at Cardinals, Sunday 4:25pm ET | 41% | | Colston Loveland anytime TD | Bears at Packers, Sunday 1pm ET | 36% | | Colby Parkinson anytime TD | Rams vs Bills, Monday night | 34% | | The parlay | +5726, boosted to +11453 | about 2.3% |

Leg 1: Trey McBride#

The anchor. McBride has 46 targets in four games, about a third of everything Arizona throws, with two touchdowns and nine red-zone targets. Boom TD! rates him Elite at 44% to score.

The matchup helps: Detroit has allowed six touchdowns to tight ends in four games. His numbers are on his pick page.

Leg 2: Sam LaPorta#

Same game, other side. LaPorta has two touchdowns and five end-zone targets in four games, and Boom TD! rates him Elite at 41%.

That game has the highest total on the Week 5 slate, 54.5, and Vegas expects about 30 points from the Lions. A shootout helps both of these legs at once. More on his pick page and the game page.

Leg 3: Colston Loveland#

Now it gets thinner. Loveland scored six touchdowns last season. This season: none in four games, on 18 targets. Six of those targets came in the red zone, which says the role is still there. Our board has him at 36%.

Leg 4: Colby Parkinson#

The long shot inside the long shot. Parkinson scored nine touchdowns last season. This season he has five targets in three games and no touchdowns.

Our board says 34%, and we think that's too high. He's played only three games this year, so the stretch of recent games our touchdown number is built from still reaches back into last season. On this season alone, he has barely been thrown to. We'd put him closer to 20%.

The math#

• At +11453, the ticket needs to hit about 0.9% of the time: one in 115.
• Multiply our board's four chances and you get about 2.3%: one in 44. On those numbers it's a strong bet.
• Mark down the two thin legs (Loveland to about 28%, Parkinson to about 20%; our judgment, not the model's) and it's about 1.0%: one in 100.

So our honest read is a roughly fair price on a ticket that almost always loses. Without the boost, at +5726, it would need 1.7% and we'd pass. The boost was a 100% profit boost; boosts differ by book and by state. What one is really worth: sportsbook promos explained.

Real talk#

• It loses about 99 times in 100. That's what a lottery ticket is.
• Two of the four legs haven't scored this season. We're betting on roles, not results.
• Small errors multiply. If each of our four chances is a little high, the ticket's chance is a lot lower.
• Only two legs are in the same game. McBride and LaPorta can ride the same shootout; the other two are on their own.
• Half a unit. We'd rather be wrong small.

Our week so far, including the +1600 ticket that cashed on Thursday and the one that lost: the TNF recap.

Odds and chances as of October 11, 2026. 21+. For entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.