The math behind the bets. Fair odds, same-game parlays, bonuses, our picks and our research, straight from the data.
Betting Math
Most same-game parlays are bad bets. Turn odds into percentages, find a parlay's fair price, account for legs that move together, and use a bonus to flip the math.
· 5 min read
The Lab
Division games, rematches, revenge games, players who 'own' a team. We measured every starter against his projection since 2019. Familiarity doesn't show up.
· 3 min read
The Lab
We tested every NFL season since 2019: how much last season still matters, how fast this one takes over, and whether hot streaks deserve extra weight.
· 3 min read
Guides · ▶ video
Stop tracking bets in a spreadsheet. Screenshot any slip from any book or sport, import old ones in bulk, and see your real profit by sport, book and bonus.
· 3 min read
Game Plan · ▶ video
Our numbers say Bears by 9.5; Vegas says 3.5. Our four Week 4 leans, power rankings, key numbers, a primetime-unders myth and the best props on the slate.
· 6 min read
Recap · ▶ video
A $100 parlay at +4300 needed overtime. Dallas tied it with 10 seconds left, then Tyler Loop hit from 56 at the gun. The finish, rebuilt play by play.
· 1 min read
Our Picks · ▶ video
Tyler Warren and Sam LaPorta TDs priced above our number, a Lions stack, and a 100% DraftKings boost that turned +1149 into +2299. Why this long shot is worth it.
· 3 min read
Betting Math
A $10 bonus bet isn't worth $10, and a 50% boost isn't worth 50%. Here's how to value every common sportsbook promo in dollars, and which bets to use each one on.
· 3 min read
Our Picks · ▶ video
PIT @ CLE is tied for Week 4's lowest total, and we have the Browns winning by a point. So we bet the ugly game: Browns +3.5, two unders, boosted to +563.
· 3 min read
