Falcons at Saints MNF Pick: Our +555 Chris Olave Same-Game Parlay

Not one leg on this ticket beats its price. We bet it anyway, and the reason is the most useful thing to know about same-game parlays.

It's a Boom Board Pick: a bet we actually placed, posted before kickoff and tracked on our picks page win or lose. Three legs, one game, one unit, at DraftKings.

| Leg | Odds | The price needs | Our chance | |---|---|---|---| | Saints −1.5 | −108 | 52% | 51% | | Chris Olave anytime TD | +120 | 45% | 41% | | Chris Olave 70+ receiving yards | −215 | 68% | 54% | | The parlay | +370, boosted to +555 | 15% at +555 | about 18% |

Olave's yards#

Boom Yards projects Chris Olave for 81 receiving yards, with a likely range of 47 to 110. The 70 line sits 11 yards under that.

• He has gone 182, 86 and 107 in three games this season.
• He gets 30% of the Saints' targets and 48% of their air yards.
• Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.

Our chance that he clears 70 is 54%. The price, −215, needs 68%. On its own, that's a pass. His full line-by-line chances are on his pick page.

Olave's touchdown#

Boom TD! rates him Strong: 41% to score, from six touchdowns in his last eight games and that 30% target share. At +120 the bet needs 45%. Close, and still short.

The Saints#

The line is Saints −1.5. Our projected spread on the matchup page is Saints by 3.0. A favorite this small has won by two or more in 363 of 707 games since 2006, about 51%, and −108 needs 52%. Call it fair.

The math that says no, and the math that says yes#

Multiply the three chances and you get 12%. The boosted price needs 15%. If these legs had nothing to do with each other, this would be a losing bet.

They have a lot to do with each other.

• Yards and touchdowns arrive together. In 14,383 starts by NFL receivers since 2016, a receiver who scored cleared 70 yards 49% of the time. One who didn't, 18%.
• A receiver touchdown helps his team cover. Teams have covered 57% of the time when a starting receiver scored, and 45% when none did.

It's one story: Tyler Shough finds Olave, and all three legs show up together. Put those links on Olave's numbers and we make the whole ticket about 18%.

Why the boost decides it#

• At +370, the ticket needs to hit 21% of the time. We say 18%. Pass.
• At +555, it needs 15%. We say 18%. Bet.

The boost is the whole bet. This one was a 50% profit boost on a same-game parlay of three or more legs at +300 or longer, up to $250. Boosts differ by book and by state, so check what yours is offering tonight. What a boost is really worth: sportsbook promos explained.

Real talk#

• It loses about four times in five. An 18% bet is still an 82% chance of losing the unit.
• It's one player. If Olave has a quiet night, two legs go at once. The same link that adds the value adds the risk.
• Our 18% is an estimate. The links come from every starting receiver, not from Olave alone. DraftKings prices these legs as less connected than we do; if they're right, the boosted bet is break-even, not a winner.
• Our last two boosted tickets lost. Both are still on the picks page, like every other loss.

How we price a parlay like this, step by step: how to bet same-game parlays.

Odds and chances as of October 5, 2026. 21+. For entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.