Our +2299 NFL Week 4 Lottery Parlay: Two Value TDs and a 100% Boost

Most weeks, a lottery ticket loses. That's what makes it a lottery ticket. The question is whether the price is worth it, and this week a 100% profit boost made it worth a full unit.

It's a Boom Board Pick: a bet we actually placed, posted before kickoff and tracked on our picks page win or lose. Four legs, two games, at DraftKings.

| Leg | Odds | Our chance | |---|---|---| | Tyler Warren anytime TD (Colts @ Commanders, London) | +155 | 42% | | Sam LaPorta anytime TD (Lions @ Panthers) | +190 | 36% | | Jared Goff 2+ passing TDs | −191 | 60% | | Amon-Ra St. Brown 60+ receiving yards | −213 | 62% | | The parlay | +1149, boosted to +2299 | about 8% |

Two touchdowns priced above our number#

• Tyler Warren anytime TD (+155). Elite on Boom TD!: 42% to score, the best touchdown chance on the Week 4 slate. The book's price says 39%; our fair price is +138. London, 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff.
• Sam LaPorta anytime TD (+190). Strong: 36%, a fair price of +174. The book says 34%. He gets 19% of Detroit's targets.

Two legs priced better than our number. That's the heart of this ticket.

The Lions stack#

Detroit at Carolina has a 50.5 total with the Lions favored, one of the highest-scoring games Vegas expects this week.

• Jared Goff 2+ passing TDs (−191). We have him at 60% for two or more (31% for three). The book is a little higher on him than we are.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown 60+ receiving yards (−213). We project 79 yards: 62% at 60. Again, the book is slightly higher than us.

Full honesty: those two legs aren't value on their own. They're here for two reasons. The boost needs four legs, and they're connected: when Goff throws two touchdowns, LaPorta is often catching one. DraftKings knows it too. It prices the three Lions legs together at +390, about 20%, and we have them at about 19%. So the edge isn't in the Lions legs. It's in the boost.

The math#

• Multiplied straight, our four chances come to about 5.6%. Because the Lions legs win together, we put the real chance around 8%.
• At +1149, a bet needs to hit 8.0% of the time to break even. On our numbers, that's a fair bet: no edge, no loss.
• DraftKings' Centennial Club 100% profit boost (four-leg same-game parlays, $100 max) doubles the profit: +2299. Now it only needs to hit 4.2% of the time.

A lottery ticket normally gets a tenth to half a unit. This one gets a full unit, because the boost caps at $100 and at this price we want all of it. It still loses most weeks. We're betting that prices like this pay over time.

How we price a parlay like this, step by step: how to bet same-game parlays. And what a profit boost is really worth: sportsbook promos explained.

Odds and chances as of September 29, 2026. 21+. For entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.