Bucs at Cowboys TNF Pick: Our +1600 Bucky Irving Same-Game Parlay

The Bucs are 0–4, Baker Mayfield is out, and Vegas has them losing by nine on Thursday night. We're betting on Tampa anyway.

It's a Boom Board Pick: a bet we actually placed, posted before kickoff and tracked on our picks page win or lose. Four legs, one game, one unit, at DraftKings. It's our early pick. Update, Thursday: we added a second ticket on this game, our SGP of the week at +480.

| Leg | Odds | The price needs | Our chance | |---|---|---|---| | Bucky Irving anytime TD | +190 | 34% | 40% | | Bucky Irving 50+ rushing yards | −128 | 56% | 62% | | Cade Otton 25+ receiving yards | −141 | 59% | 69% | | Bucs +9.5 | −119 | 54% | about 55% | | The parlay | +800, boosted to +1600 | 6% at +1600 | about 13% |

The news: Mayfield out, Daniels starts#

Baker Mayfield is out with a thumb injury. Jalon Daniels starts for the second week in a row. Against Green Bay last week he went 19 of 27 for 148 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, and ran eight times for 55. Tampa lost 17–14.

Our board has been re-run with Daniels at quarterback. We project him for 193 passing yards, a coin flip (48%) to reach 200, and no Tampa receiver projects above 52 yards. Tampa's passing yards are the legs to stay away from.

The line, and why we don't trust our own number here#

Vegas has Dallas by 8.5 (the line opened at 9.5). Our projected spread on the game page says Dallas by 4.4.

Don't bet that gap. Our spread is built from each team's play-by-play as a whole, and it doesn't know the quarterback changed. Vegas does. In our Week 5 Game Plan we called Bucs +9.5 a lean on the strength of that gap, before we had Mayfield as out; we've corrected that post.

So on its own, Bucs +9.5 is about a coin flip at a fair price. It's on this ticket for a different reason, which is below.

The case for Dallas, and the case for Tampa#

Dallas: Tampa is winless, scores 19 points a game, ranks 26th in passing offense and now starts a backup. The Cowboys score 30 a game with the fourth-ranked passing offense.

Tampa: Dallas can't stop anybody. The Cowboys rank 32nd against the pass and 29th against the run, and allow 28 points a game. Tampa's four losses were by 6, 4, 7 and 3: every one a one-score game, including last week with Daniels.

The matchup that matters is Tampa's run game (14th) against that Dallas run defense (29th). With a backup quarterback, that's where the Bucs go.

Bucky Irving#

Boom Yards projects Bucky Irving for 62 rushing yards. We have him at 62% to clear 50, where −128 needs 56%.

• His rushing yards this season: 45, 89, 46 and 61. That's 50 or more in two of four.
• He had 16 carries last week with Daniels in.

Boom TD! has him at 40% to score, where +190 needs 34%. He has one touchdown in four games; the 40% comes from his workload and from Vegas expecting about 19 or 20 points from Tampa. His line-by-line chances are on his pick page.

Cade Otton#

Cade Otton has 26, 38, 56 and 37 receiving yards this season: 25 or more in all four games, with six targets in each of the last three. We project 41 yards and make him about 69% to clear 25 again, where −141 needs 59%. More on his pick page.

Why these four go together#

Multiply the four chances and you get about 9%. But these legs tell one story, and they tend to show up together.

• A back who scores usually has his yards. Since 2016, starting running backs who scored cleared 70 rushing yards 53% of the time. Those who didn't, 26%.
• A team that runs well and scores stays in the game. If Irving has 50 yards and a touchdown, Tampa is usually inside 9.5.

Chain them and we make the ticket about 13%: 40% that Irving scores, 30% that he also has his 50 yards, 19% that Tampa also covers, 13% that Otton also gets his 25.

At +800 this is close to a fair bet. At +1600 it needs to hit about 6% of the time, and we have it at roughly twice that. The boost was a 100% profit boost on a same-game parlay of four or more legs; boosts differ by book and by state, so check yours. What a boost is really worth: sportsbook promos explained.

Real talk#

• It loses about seven times in eight. A 13% bet is still an 87% chance of losing the unit.
• The 13% is our estimate. We chained the legs by hand, using links measured on every starting back, not on Irving alone.
• The Tampa numbers lean on one start. Daniels has played one full game. Everything we project for Irving and Otton with him is softer than usual.
• One leg has no edge of its own. Bucs +9.5 is here because it rides with the other three.
• One unit, no more.

On the Dallas side#

If you'd rather build around the Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb is rated Elite on Boom Yards at 90 projected yards and 39% to score, and Dak Prescott projects for 258 yards with a 60% chance at two or more touchdown passes. Every player and every line is on the game page.

How we price a parlay like this, step by step: how to bet same-game parlays.

Odds and chances as of October 7, 2026. 21+. For entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.