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NFL player props · same-game parlays · free

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Every NFL starter's chance at a big day, every week: Boom Yards (275 passing, 100 rushing, 100 receiving, 70 for tight ends) and Boom TD! Build better SGP legs, grade your slip, and sweat it live with your crew.

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21+ · For fun, not betting advice · or look at this week first ↓

Live · 2026 season

updates after every game

💥 Boom Board Picks

+5.53u+$55315–28

Real bets we placed, posted before kickoff. 1 unit = $100. Every loss stays up →

🎯 Our top-rated players

31/82boomed · 38%

2.8×the field

Top-rated38%
Everyone14%

Boom TD! top-rated: 42 of 105 scored

Week 9 booms · Nacua 150 · Bowers 111 · III 107 · III 102 · Robinson 100

Week 10

Week 10Week 11

This week's games

Biggest gap to Vegas first. Open a game for its players and lines.

All 14 →

Vegasour numberleft of centre favours the away team, right the home teampts apart how far we are from Vegas

JAX @ TEN

Sun 1p

3.0

pts apart

JAX −10.5JAX −13.5

We lean JAX: the power ratings · top-rated: Trevor Lawrence

MIN @ GB

Sun 1p

2.7

pts apart

GB −3.5GB −6.2

We lean GB: the power ratings

LA @ ARI

Sun 4:05p

2.6

pts apart

LA −9.5LA −6.9

We lean ARI: the power ratings · top-rated: Matthew Stafford

CAR @ NO

Sun 1p

2.4

pts apart

NO −2.5NO −0.1

We lean CAR: the power ratings · top-rated: Bryce Young

NE @ DET

Sun 9:30a

Our number, the players and the lines: free with an account →

SF @ DAL

Sun 4:25p

Our number, the players and the lines: free with an account →

WAS @ NYG

Thu 8:15p

Our number, the players and the lines: free with an account →

LAC @ BAL

Mon 8:15p

Our number, the players and the lines: free with an account →

See our number on all 14 games, free →

Our picks this week

The bets we actually placed, posted before kickoff

All picks →

No picks posted for Week 10 yet.

Best legs of the week

This week's top-rated players.

All players →

our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more

Joe BurrowElite

QB · CIN vs PIT · Sun 8:20p

276

48%

275+ yds

Matthew StaffordElite

QB · LA @ ARI · Sun 4:05p

269

45%

275+ yds

Brock PurdyStrong

QB · SF @ DAL · Sun 4:25p

266

44%

275+ yds

Bryce YoungStrong

QB · CAR @ NO · Sun 1p

263

41%

275+ yds

Trevor LawrenceStrong

QB · JAX @ TEN · Sun 1p

261

40%

275+ yds

This week's reads

The game plan, our picks with the math, and the guides

All posts →

Try it

Type your book's line. Get his real chance.

This is Joe Burrow (CIN vs PIT), one of this week's top-rated players. Change the line and watch his chance and the fair price move. The book shows you a price; this shows you whether it's a good one.

Every starting QB, RB, WR and TE has one, for yards and for touchdowns, every week.

Open every player, freeSee why we rate him →

Projection

276 passing yds

likely 221–327

Over 275.5

48%

fair odds +108

Under 275.5

52%

fair odds -108

150175200225250275300325350375400

Chance of at least that many passing yards. Red = the boom line (275). Tap a bar to use it. Longer odds than fair = value, if you trust the number.

Boom Board Picks

We bet it too.

Every week we post the bets we actually placed: a safe SGP, a lottery SGP, a few singles. Real bets, posted before kickoff, every loss stays up.

Safe

+2.3u

1–2

Lottery

+12.4u

1–6

Anti-Boom

−1u

0–1

Teaser

−7.17u

13–18

Single

−1u

0–1

🔒 This week's card is members-only

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Everything you need on a Sunday.

  • The whole board, and the whyEvery starter's chance at any line you're looking at, the fair price to hold up against the book's, and what's driving every number.
  • Rate any slipBuild an SGP and we grade it on our numbers: each leg's chance, the whole slip's, and whether the odds pay enough.
  • Sweat it liveLog a bet (paste it or screenshot it) and watch every leg move during the game. It settles itself when the game ends.
  • Build a namePost your slips before kickoff and we grade every leg: your record, in units, on your profile and the leaderboard. Plus private groups for your crew.
Join freeAn email and a password. No card, no catch.

Welcome to the board

Every Sunday somebody goes off. We tell you who.

Boom Board is built for the prop crowd: the people building player props and same-game parlays in the group chat on Sunday morning. Every week we put every starting QB, RB, WR and TE through one question: can he have a big yardage day, or find the end zone?

No vibes, no hot takes. We crunch 10 seasons of every player's games and every snap of play-by-play, the Vegas lines, kickoff weather and the injury report, then project each starter's yards and touchdowns, and his chance to clear any line this week.

And we keep receipts. Every number locks at kickoff and every result gets posted, hits and misses. Tail it, fade it, argue about it with your crew.

How we do it, step by step →

The receipts · tested on 2025, a season the model never saw

games of player history, 2016 to now
59,593
games of player history, 2016 to now
starts the model trained and was tested on
21,818
starts the model trained and was tested on
players rated Elite or Strong in 2025
219
players rated Elite or Strong in 2025
boomed: 30% of our top-rated
66
boomed: 30% of our top-rated
of all starters boomed
13%
of all starters boomed
2.3×Our top-rated players boomed 2.3× as often as the field.RBs we picked: 22% vs 15% for every RB (74 picks).
1.7×Top-rated TD calls hit 37% vs 22% for everyone.Every season since 2019, each one predicted only from the seasons before it.