MIN @ GB
Sun 1p · outdoors
GB −3.5
Vegas spread
GB −6.2
our spread
2.7 pts
apart · we lean GB
41.5 · ours 43.3
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (GB #7 on the field, #16 in the market; MIN #16 vs #15).
- Our total is 43.3, 1.8 over the line: the two teams' starters project to 4.9 touchdowns, with a typical outdoor wind (no forecast yet).
- Biggest mismatch: GB passing (#3 offense) against MIN's #1 pass defense.
- Pace: about 116 plays expected between them.
- Out: Chris Brooks (GB RB, IR), Skyy Moore (GB WR, IR), Josh Jacobs (GB RB), Jayden Reed (GB WR, IR), Kyler Murray (MIN QB), Josh Oliver (MIN TE, IR).
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
MIN · power rank #16
Kirk Cousins
QB
24%
275+ yds
Jordan Mason
RB
12%
100+ yds
Justin Jefferson
WR
14%
100+ yds
Jordan Addison
WR
8%
100+ yds
Jauan Jennings
WR
0%
100+ yds
T.J. Hockenson
TE
11%
70+ yds
GB · power rank #7
Jordan Love
QB
28%
275+ yds
MarShawn Lloyd
RB
1%
100+ yds
Matthew Golden
WR
12%
100+ yds
Christian Watson
WR
12%
100+ yds
Savion Williams
WR
0%
100+ yds
Tucker Kraft
TE
17%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
Justin Jefferson over 58.5 rec yds + Justin Jefferson anytime TD
19%12% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 48% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +428.
Tucker Kraft over 44.5 rec yds + Tucker Kraft anytime TD
22%15% if unrelated
A TE who scores clears 50 yards 44% of the time, 19% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +359.
Kirk Cousins 2+ pass TDs + Over 41.5
27%19% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +277.
Jordan Love 2+ pass TDs + Over 41.5
31%23% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +218.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 43.3, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
54%
win
0%
push
46%
lose
Fair price −116 · at −110 it's value: about +2¢ per $1
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.