CAR @ NO
Sun 1p · dome
NO −2.5
Vegas spread
NO −0.1
our spread
2.4 pts
apart · we lean CAR
48.5 · ours 49.7
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (NO #25 on the field, #24 in the market; CAR #17 vs #19).
- Our total is 49.7, 1.2 over the line: the two teams' starters project to 5.6 touchdowns.
- Biggest mismatch: CAR passing (#14 offense) against NO's #24 pass defense.
- Pace: about 128 plays expected between them.
- Out: Xavier Legette (CAR WR, IR), Travis Etienne Jr. (NO RB, IR).
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
CAR · power rank #17
Bryce YoungStrong
QB
41%
275+ yds
Chuba Hubbard
RB
16%
100+ yds
Tetairoa McMillan
WR
12%
100+ yds
Jalen Coker
WR
6%
100+ yds
John Metchie III
WR
5%
100+ yds
Tommy Tremble
TE
8%
70+ yds
NO · power rank #25
Tyler Shough
QB
30%
275+ yds
Alvin Kamara
RB
12%
100+ yds
Chris Olave
WR
20%
100+ yds
Devaughn Vele
WR
5%
100+ yds
Jordyn Tyson
WR
2%
100+ yds
Juwan Johnson
TE
7%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
Tetairoa McMillan over 60.5 rec yds + Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD
24%16% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 48% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +319.
Chris Olave over 68.5 rec yds + Chris Olave anytime TD
26%17% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 48% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +288.
Bryce Young 2+ pass TDs + Over 48.5
34%25% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +198.
Tyler Shough 2+ pass TDs + Over 48.5
36%28% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +177.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 49.7, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
50%
win
0%
push
50%
lose
Fair price +102 · at −110 it's overpriced: about −5¢ per $1
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.