LA @ ARI
Sun 4:05p
LA −9.5
Vegas spread
LA −6.9
our spread
2.6 pts
apart · we lean ARI
39.5 · ours 42.7
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (ARI #22 on the field, #29 in the market; LA #4 vs #4).
- Our total is 42.7, 3.2 over the line: the two teams' starters project to 3.8 touchdowns, with a typical outdoor wind (no forecast yet).
- Biggest mismatch: LA passing (#13 offense) against ARI's #29 pass defense.
- Pace: about 130 plays expected between them.
- Out: Gardner Minshew II (ARI QB, IR), Jeremiyah Love (ARI RB, IR), Michael Wilson (ARI WR, IR), Jalen Brooks (ARI WR, IR), Kendrick Bourne (ARI WR, IR), Jordan Whittington (LA WR, IR) and 3 more.
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
LA · power rank #4
Matthew StaffordElite
QB
45%
275+ yds
Kyren Williams
RB
15%
100+ yds
Tutu Atwell
WR
13%
100+ yds
CJ Daniels
WR
5%
100+ yds
Konata Mumpfield
WR
4%
100+ yds
Tyler Higbee
TE
12%
70+ yds
ARI · power rank #22
Carson Beck
QB
4%
275+ yds
Tyler Allgeier
RB
9%
100+ yds
Simi Fehoko
WR
3%
100+ yds
Reggie Virgil
WR
1%
100+ yds
Devin Duvernay
WR
1%
100+ yds
Trey McBrideStrong
TE
34%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
Tutu Atwell over 60.5 rec yds + Tutu Atwell anytime TD
10%6% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 48% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +931.
Trey McBride over 61.5 rec yds + Trey McBride anytime TD
17%11% if unrelated
A TE who scores clears 50 yards 44% of the time, 19% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +494.
Carson Beck 2+ pass TDs + Over 39.5
19%13% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +431.
Matthew Stafford 2+ pass TDs + Over 39.5
34%25% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +196.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 42.7, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
52%
win
0%
push
48%
lose
Fair price −110 · at −110 it's about fair
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.