Boom Matchups · Week 4

Every line as a real chance: what the spread and total say will happen, at every alternate line, with fair odds. Plus weekly power rankings and the matchups that move player props.

Points better or worse than an average team on a neutral field, from every play this season, adjusted for who they played. Last season counts a little early on. Built before Week 4.

#	Team	Pts	Wk	Market	Pass O	Pass D	Run O	Run D	Plays/g
1	JAX	+5.6	▲5	#13	3	4	7	14	60.1
2	SEAQB change	+5.4	▼1	#3	5	3	27	1	58.9
3	LA	+4.8	▼1	#4	10	2	12	15	62.9
4	SF	+4.8	▼1	#6	1	19	9	20	58.8
5	KC	+3.6	▲2	#5	12	7	5	7	62.5
6	BUF	+3.6	▼2	#1	2	15	2	31	61.6
7	CHI	+2.7	▲2	#17	7	13	4	30	66.2
8	NE	+2.3	▼3	#15	8	8	21	24	59.6
9	DEN	+2.1	▲2	#10	15	5	11	27	59.8
10	BAL	+1.9	▼2	#2	9	17	3	18	56.8
11	HOU	+1.6	▼1	#9	18	6	31	2	64.8
12	DET	+0.8	—	#7	4	24	18	25	63.4
13	MINQB change	+0.2	▲1	#16	32	1	24	3	55.3
14	IND	−0.2	▲3	#19	19	23	1	28	60.7
15	PHI	−0.4	▼2	#8	22	12	10	17	57.8
16	CIN	−0.8	▲5	#11	17	21	6	22	60.4
17	CAR	−1.0	▲1	#22	16	22	22	23	61.2
18	NO	−1.1	▼2	#23	21	16	23	19	67.3
19	PIT	−1.3	—	#21	26	10	8	21	59
20	GB	−1.4	▼5	#12	11	28	30	16	59.1
21	ARI	−1.4	▼1	#24	13	29	20	12	64.1
22	LAC	−1.5	▲1	#14	28	14	25	6	61.7
23	TB	−1.7	▼1	#20	23	20	14	4	61.1
24	ATLQB change	−1.8	▲1	#29	31	11	13	8	61.8
25	DAL	−2.1	▼1	#18	6	32	15	29	62.6
26	CLE	−2.3	—	#31	29	9	28	13	58.1
27	LV	−2.5	▲2	#28	27	18	32	5	57.9
28	WAS	−2.7	—	#27	14	30	16	10	61.1
29	NYG	−3.4	▼2	#26	25	25	17	32	61.6
30	NYJ	−4.0	—	#25	24	26	29	11	61.6
31	MIA	−4.6	—	#32	20	31	26	9	56.3
32	TEN	−5.3	—	#30	30	27	19	26	56

Unit ranks: 1 is best (for defenses, 1 allows the least). Market: the same rating worked out from this season's spreads.

Biggest gaps · us vs the market

JAX #1 on the field, #13 in the market (we rate them higher)

Same QB all season. The plays so far rate them higher than the price does: the market may be leaning on last season, or on injuries the plays don't show yet.

CHI #7 on the field, #17 in the market (we rate them higher)

Same QB all season. The plays so far rate them higher than the price does: the market may be leaning on last season, or on injuries the plays don't show yet.

BAL #10 on the field, #2 in the market (the market rates them higher)

Same QB all season. The price rates them higher than the plays so far: the market may be leaning on last season, or expecting a bounce-back.

GB #20 on the field, #12 in the market (the market rates them higher)

Same QB all season. The price rates them higher than the plays so far: the market may be leaning on last season, or expecting a bounce-back.

For your bet: Rankings explain the line, they don't beat it. Over 1,400 test games, betting our rating against the spread lost. Use them to understand a price, then check it on the Games tab.

How we rank · the exact settings

Every play: EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap changed a team's expected score), from the NFL's play-by-play.
Adjusted for opponents: each team's offense and defense solved together with home field, so a good day against a bad defense counts for less.
Weights: every game this season counts the same (recent hot streaks didn't predict better in testing); last season's games count 25%, so they fade as this season fills in.
Points: EPA per play × 33.4 (fit on 2017–20 games) = points vs an average team on a neutral field.
Market: the same scale solved from this season's spreads (each line = one team's rating − the other's + home field).

Updated Sep 29, 2:37 PM ET. More on how it works

QB changes this week

SEA: Sam Darnold starts. The rating was built mostly with Drew Lock (51% of dropbacks), so read it with care.

MIN: Kyler Murray starts. The rating was built mostly with Carson Wentz (55% of dropbacks), so read it with care.

ATL: Michael Penix Jr. starts. The rating was built mostly with Cooper Rush (51% of dropbacks), so read it with care.