How it works
Model v2.0 · built on 2019–2024, tested on 2025
01 · The line
Yards only, one game, in the stat each position is bet on.
300
passing yds
happens 21% of starts
110
rushing yds
happens 13% of starts
110
receiving yds
happens 8% of starts
80
receiving yds
happens 8% of starts
02 · The data
Refreshed before every board.
Play-by-play
Every snap: down, distance, air yards, pressure, pass rate
Box scores
Every player's yards, targets, carries, game by game
Snap counts
Who was actually on the field
Injury reports
Out, doubtful, questionable, both teams
Depth charts
This week's starters and who fills in
Vegas lines
Spread and over/under, every game
Weather
Wind at kickoff, forecast for this week
03 · The method
50 ideas, 20,000+ games.
1
Build every idea
~50 factors for every starter, every game. Only what was known before kickoff.
2
Test on unseen games
Learn six seasons, predict the seventh. Repeat for each season.
3
Keep what helps
A factor stays only if it helps in most seasons.
4
Each position alone
A 300-yard QB isn't a 110-yard RB. Separate searches.
Checked against a black box allowed all 50: ours matched or beat it at every position.
04 · What predicts a boom
How often the top fifth on each factor boomed, vs the bottom fifth. Bigger gap, more points.
QB300+ passing ydsnormal 21%
Yards lately21 pts
top 33%bottom 12%Game total14 pts
top 31%bottom 11%Team points17 pts
top 31%bottom 10%Opp pass defense11 pts
top 24%bottom 18%Pass-happy team16 pts
top 31%bottom 14%Wind10 pts
top 24%bottom 17%Boom-or-bust4 pts
top 23%bottom 18%Pocket passer7 pts
top 21%bottom 18%
RB110+ rushing ydsnormal 13%
Yards lately31 pts
top 24%bottom 5%Opp run defense25 pts
top 19%bottom 9%Carry share21 pts
top 20%bottom 6%Run-heavy team15 pts
top 18%bottom 9%Offense quality8 pts
top 15%bottom 10%
WR110+ receiving ydsnormal 8%
Yards lately44 pts
top 18%bottom 2%Target quality33 pts
top 18%bottom 2%Game total16 pts
top 11%bottom 5%Injured teammates7 pts
top 9%bottom 8%
TE80+ receiving ydsnormal 8%
Yards lately28 pts
top 23%bottom 1%Target quality38 pts
top 21%bottom 1%Snap share18 pts
top 16%bottom 2%Team points16 pts
top 13%bottom 4%
05 · What didn't make it
Some of these really move yardage. The betting line already prices them, so they add nothing new.
QBs in a dome
24% vs 17%
…but domes already get higher totals
QBs in the cold
12% vs 20%
…but cold games already get lower totals
WRs with a backup QB
6% vs 8%
…but books drop the team total
Home vs roadNo consistent edge once Vegas is inNight gamesNo consistent edgeTurf vs grassDomes and turf overlap; Vegas already prices itDomeReal, but the game total already reflects itCold weatherReal for QBs, but the game total already reflects itBackup QB startingReal, but Vegas lowers the total for itExtra restNo consistent edgeDivision gamesNo consistent edgeOpposing DBs or front seven outNo consistent edgeOwn offensive line outNo consistent edgePass-rush pressure, pace, explosive plays allowedAlready covered by the factors above
Injured teammates: real, but small
A top teammate ruled out, vs the player's normal:
−6
context
+5
context
+6
scored
+3
context
The one weather factor that stayed: wind, for QBs.