How Boom TD! works
Expected touchdowns for every starter, then his chance of 1+, 2+ and 3+
The booms
- QB 3+ pass TDs18% of starters get there
- RB 2+ TDs13% of starters get there
- WR anytime TD26% of starters get there
- TE anytime TD21% of starters get there
3+ passing TDs and 2+ for running backs happen about as often as our yardage booms. Two TDs for a receiver (5%) or tight end (3%) is too rare to call week to week, so for them the boom is the anytime TD, the prop people bet most. Every player still shows 1+, 2+ and 3+.
How good is it?
Every season from 2019 was predicted by a model fit only on the seasons before it.
- QB top-rated hit38% vs 18% for everyone
- RB top-rated hit25% vs 13% for everyone
- WR top-rated hit45% vs 26% for everyone
- TE top-rated hit35% vs 21% for everyone
And when it says 30%, it happens about 30% of the time: we check that at 1+, 2+ and 3+, every position, every season.
What goes in
Vegas team total
The #1 driver at every position. Touchdowns follow points: a team expected to score 28 scores about 3 or 4 TDs.
His recent touchdowns
Last 8 and last 16 games. Regresses hard: one big game barely moves it.
His role
Share of his team's targets and carries, and his snap share. For WRs and TEs, the biggest factor after Vegas.
Expected TDs (play-by-play)
For every carry and target since 2016 we know the yard line, so we know how often a touch from there scores. A player's expected TDs is what his touches should have produced. It predicts next week better than his actual TDs do (TEs especially).
Game script
Favorites run it in late (good for their RB's 2+); underdogs throw late.
Wind
Small, for receivers only: calm days help a little.
Tested and left out
- Goal-line carry share: Real, but his recent TDs and role already carry it
- Opponent TDs allowed: Adds nothing once the Vegas line is in
- Injured teammates: Nothing measurable on TDs (it helps yards)
- Home/road, turf vs grass, cold, domes: Vegas already prices all of them
From expected TDs to a %
The model estimates his expected touchdowns (say 0.9 for a lead back). Touchdowns arrive like rare, separate events, so from that number we get the chance of 1, 2 or 3+. A last calibration step, learned from past seasons, keeps those chances honest where the plain math runs cautious on the best spots. Picks are Elite and Strong at each position, with each position's own bar, because a 30% shot at 3 passing TDs and a 30% shot at an anytime TD are very different calls.
For fun, not betting advice. 21+.