NYG @ PHI
Sun 1p · outdoors
NYG −3.5
Vegas spread
NYG −0.1
our spread
3.4 pts
apart · we lean PHI
40.5 · ours 42.6
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (PHI #30 on the field, #21 in the market; NYG #20 vs #27).
- Our total is 42.6, 2.1 over the line: the two teams' starters project to 4.3 touchdowns, with a typical outdoor wind (no forecast yet).
- Biggest mismatch: PHI rushing (#23 offense) against NYG's #32 run defense.
- Pace: about 124 plays expected between them.
- Out: Will Shipley (PHI RB, IR), Dameon Pierce (PHI RB, IR), Dontayvion Wicks (PHI WR), DeVonta Smith (PHI WR), Jalen Hurts (PHI QB, IR).
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
NYG · power rank #20
J.J. McCarthy
QB
14%
275+ yds
Cam Skattebo
RB
16%
100+ yds
Malik Nabers
WR
22%
100+ yds
Malachi Fields
WR
5%
100+ yds
Darnell Mooney
WR
1%
100+ yds
Isaiah Likely
TE
16%
70+ yds
PHI · power rank #30
Tanner McKee
QB
18%
275+ yds
Saquon Barkley
RB
25%
100+ yds
Makai Lemon
WR
7%
100+ yds
Hollywood Brown
WR
5%
100+ yds
Darius Cooper
WR
2%
100+ yds
Dallas Goedert
TE
14%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
Malik Nabers over 70.5 rec yds + Malik Nabers anytime TD
21%13% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 49% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +385.
Dallas Goedert over 41.5 rec yds + Dallas Goedert anytime TD
15%10% if unrelated
A TE who scores clears 50 yards 44% of the time, 19% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +584.
Tanner McKee 2+ pass TDs + Over 40.5
22%15% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +357.
J.J. McCarthy 2+ pass TDs + Over 40.5
27%20% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +264.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 42.6, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
54%
win
0%
push
46%
lose
Fair price −116 · at −110 it's value: about +2¢ per $1
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.