LV @ SF
Sun 4:05p · outdoors
SF −10
Vegas spread
SF −12.5
our spread
2.5 pts
apart · we lean SF
51.5 · ours 50.2
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (SF #2 on the field, #7 in the market; LV #29 vs #26).
- Our total is 50.2, 1.3 under the line: the two teams' starters project to 6.2 touchdowns, with a typical outdoor wind (no forecast yet).
- Biggest mismatch: SF passing (#1 offense) against LV's #26 pass defense.
- Pace: about 120 plays expected between them.
- Out: Jack Bech (LV WR), Demarcus Robinson (SF WR, IR).
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
LV · power rank #29
Kirk Cousins
QB
28%
275+ yds
Ashton Jeanty
RB
7%
100+ yds
Tre Tucker
WR
7%
100+ yds
Jalen Nailor
WR
1%
100+ yds
Jack Bech
WR
1%
100+ yds
Brock BowersStrong
TE
33%
70+ yds
SF · power rank #2
Brock PurdyElite
QB
46%
275+ yds
Christian McCaffrey
RB
13%
100+ yds
Mike Evans
WR
12%
100+ yds
Deebo Samuel
WR
9%
100+ yds
Jordan Watkins
WR
7%
100+ yds
George KittleStrong
TE
34%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
Brock Bowers over 60.5 rec yds + Brock Bowers anytime TD
20%14% if unrelated
A TE who scores clears 50 yards 44% of the time, 19% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +390.
George Kittle over 60.5 rec yds + George Kittle anytime TD
25%18% if unrelated
A TE who scores clears 50 yards 44% of the time, 19% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +294.
Kirk Cousins 2+ pass TDs + Over 51.5
31%23% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +218.
Brock Purdy 2+ pass TDs + Over 51.5
42%35% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +136.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 50.2, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
51%
win
5%
push
44%
lose
Fair price −114 · at −110 it's about fair
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.