JAX @ BAL
Thu 8:15p · outdoors
JAX −8.5
Vegas spread
JAX −6.7
our spread
1.8 pts
apart · we lean BAL
42.5 · ours 46.3
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (BAL #17 on the field, #14 in the market; JAX #1 vs #3).
- Our total is 46.3, 3.8 over the line: the two teams' starters project to 4.9 touchdowns, with a typical outdoor wind (no forecast yet).
- Biggest mismatch: JAX passing (#4 offense) against BAL's #20 pass defense.
- Pace: about 118 plays expected between them.
- Out: Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), Durham Smythe (BAL TE, IR).
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
JAX · power rank #1
Trevor Lawrence
QB
35%
275+ yds
Bhayshul Tuten
RB
12%
100+ yds
Parker Washington
WR
12%
100+ yds
Jakobi Meyers
WR
4%
100+ yds
Josh Cameron
WR
0%
100+ yds
Brenton Strange
TE
12%
70+ yds
BAL · power rank #17
Tyler Huntley
QB
15%
275+ yds
Derrick Henry
RB
17%
100+ yds
Zay Flowers
WR
13%
100+ yds
Rashod Bateman
WR
2%
100+ yds
Ja'Kobi Lane
WR
1%
100+ yds
Mark Andrews
TE
5%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
Zay Flowers over 61.5 rec yds + Zay Flowers anytime TD
20%12% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 49% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +408.
Brenton Strange over 40.5 rec yds + Brenton Strange anytime TD
17%11% if unrelated
A TE who scores clears 50 yards 44% of the time, 19% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +498.
Tyler Huntley 2+ pass TDs + Over 42.5
20%13% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +405.
Trevor Lawrence 2+ pass TDs + Over 42.5
36%28% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +176.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 46.3, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
52%
win
0%
push
48%
lose
Fair price −110 · at −110 it's about fair
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.