DAL @ IND
Sun 1p
DAL −6
Vegas spread
IND −0.1
our spread
6.1 pts
apart · we lean IND
51.5 · ours 50.6
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (IND #23 on the field, #22 in the market; DAL #22 vs #11).
- Our total is 50.6, right on the line: the two teams' starters project to 6.3 touchdowns, with a typical outdoor wind (no forecast yet).
- Biggest mismatch: DAL passing (#7 offense) against IND's #21 pass defense.
- Pace: about 127 plays expected between them.
- Out: Alec Pierce (IND WR, IR).
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
DAL · power rank #22
Dak Prescott
QB
39%
275+ yds
Javonte Williams
RB
24%
100+ yds
CeeDee Lamb
WR
25%
100+ yds
George Pickens
WR
12%
100+ yds
Ryan Flournoy
WR
4%
100+ yds
Jake Ferguson
TE
5%
70+ yds
IND · power rank #23
Daniel Jones
QB
30%
275+ yds
Jonathan Taylor
RB
24%
100+ yds
Josh Downs
WR
9%
100+ yds
Keenan Allen
WR
5%
100+ yds
Laquon Treadwell
WR
3%
100+ yds
Tyler Warren
TE
21%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
CeeDee Lamb over 73.5 rec yds + CeeDee Lamb anytime TD
28%19% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 49% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +255.
Tyler Warren over 47.5 rec yds + Tyler Warren anytime TD
24%18% if unrelated
A TE who scores clears 50 yards 44% of the time, 19% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +310.
Daniel Jones 2+ pass TDs + Over 51.5
31%23% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +221.
Dak Prescott 2+ pass TDs + Over 51.5
40%32% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +148.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 50.6, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
50%
win
4%
push
46%
lose
Fair price −110 · at −110 it's about fair
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.