PHI @ WAS
Final 10–27 · outdoors
WAS −6
Vegas spread
WAS −2.9
our spread
3.1 pts
apart · we lean PHI
40.5 · ours 42.7
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (WAS #29 on the field, #25 in the market; PHI #27 vs #20).
- Our total is 42.7, 2.2 over the line: the two teams' starters project to 4.2 touchdowns, with a typical outdoor wind (no forecast yet).
- Biggest mismatch: WAS passing (#16 offense) against PHI's #16 pass defense.
- Pace: about 119 plays expected between them.
- Out: DeVonta Smith (PHI WR), Dontayvion Wicks (PHI WR), Dameon Pierce (PHI RB, IR), Jalen Hurts (PHI QB, IR), Will Shipley (PHI RB, IR), Terry McLaurin (WAS WR, IR) and 1 more.
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
PHI · power rank #27
Tanner McKee
QB
26%
275+ yds
Saquon Barkley
RB
19%
100+ yds
Darius Cooper
WR
7%
100+ yds
Hollywood Brown
WR
5%
100+ yds
Makai Lemon
WR
4%
100+ yds
Dallas Goedert
TE
22%
70+ yds
WAS · power rank #29
Jayden Daniels
QB
20%
275+ yds
Rachaad White
RB
10%
100+ yds
Stefon Diggs
WR
12%
100+ yds
Antonio Williams
WR
8%
100+ yds
Treylon Burks
WR
3%
100+ yds
Chig Okonkwo
TE
11%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
Stefon Diggs over 55.5 rec yds + Stefon Diggs anytime TD
20%13% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 49% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +394.
Dallas Goedert over 49.5 rec yds + Dallas Goedert anytime TD
14%9% if unrelated
A TE who scores clears 50 yards 44% of the time, 19% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +598.
Tanner McKee 2+ pass TDs + Over 40.5
21%14% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +380.
Jayden Daniels 2+ pass TDs + Over 40.5
31%23% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +223.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 42.7, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
50%
win
4%
push
46%
lose
Fair price −110 · at −110 it's about fair
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.