LAC @ LA
Final 9–24 · dome
LA −6.5
Vegas spread
LA −9.7
our spread
3.2 pts
apart · we lean LA
46.5 · ours 46.9
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (LA #4 on the field, #3 in the market; LAC #23 vs #19).
- Our total is 46.9, right on the line: the two teams' starters project to 5.1 touchdowns, with two offenses that have struggled.
- Biggest mismatch: LA passing (#11 offense) against LAC's #4 pass defense.
- Pace: about 128 plays expected between them.
- Out: Davante Adams (LA WR, IR), Terrance Ferguson (LA TE, IR), Theo Wease Jr. (LAC WR), David Njoku (LAC TE, IR).
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
LAC · power rank #23
Justin Herbert
QB
20%
275+ yds
Omarion Hampton
RB
13%
100+ yds
Quentin Johnston
WR
9%
100+ yds
Tre' Harris
WR
8%
100+ yds
Ladd McConkey
WR
7%
100+ yds
Charlie Kolar
TE
5%
70+ yds
LA · power rank #4
Matthew StaffordElite
QB
57%
275+ yds
Kyren Williams
RB
13%
100+ yds
Puka NacuaElite
WR
39%
100+ yds
Konata Mumpfield
WR
9%
100+ yds
Jordan Whittington
WR
1%
100+ yds
Tyler Higbee
TE
12%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
Quentin Johnston over 41.5 rec yds + Quentin Johnston anytime TD
18%11% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 49% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +453.
Puka Nacua over 93.5 rec yds + Puka Nacua anytime TD
28%19% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 49% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +261.
Justin Herbert 2+ pass TDs + Over 46.5
27%19% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +265.
Matthew Stafford 2+ pass TDs + Over 46.5
38%30% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +162.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 46.9, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
50%
win
0%
push
50%
lose
Fair price −101 · at −110 it's overpriced: about −4¢ per $1
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.