CHI @ SEA
Mon 8:15p · outdoors
SEA −3
Vegas spread
SEA −5.5
our spread
2.5 pts
apart · we lean SEA
46.5 · ours 47.3
total: Vegas, then ours
The story
- Why we differ from Vegas: mostly the power ratings (SEA #3 on the field, #2 in the market; CHI #9 vs #13).
- Our total is 47.3, right on the line: the two teams' starters project to 5.5 touchdowns, with a typical outdoor wind (no forecast yet).
- Biggest mismatch: SEA passing (#9 offense) against CHI's #12 pass defense.
- Pace: about 130 plays expected between them.
- Out: Cole Kmet (CHI TE, IR), Case Keenum (CHI QB), Kyle Monangai (CHI RB), Rashid Shaheed (SEA WR).
Players
our projection, inside his usual rangethe big-game line% his chance to reach it+ puts it on your slip · tap a row for more
CHI · power rank #9
Caleb Williams
QB
22%
275+ yds
D'Andre Swift
RB
13%
100+ yds
Rome Odunze
WR
10%
100+ yds
Luther Burden III
WR
9%
100+ yds
Kalif Raymond
WR
2%
100+ yds
Colston Loveland
TE
19%
70+ yds
SEA · power rank #3
Sam Darnold
QB
30%
275+ yds
Zach Charbonnet
RB
10%
100+ yds
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaElite
WR
41%
100+ yds
Cooper Kupp
WR
8%
100+ yds
Tory Horton
WR
2%
100+ yds
AJ Barner
TE
13%
70+ yds
Legs that go together
Legs that tend to win on the same night. The chance of both, against what you'd get by multiplying them.
Colston Loveland over 45.5 rec yds + Colston Loveland anytime TD
20%14% if unrelated
A TE who scores clears 50 yards 44% of the time, 19% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +403.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 95.5 rec yds + Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD
28%19% if unrelated
A WR who scores clears 70 yards 49% of the time, 18% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +256.
Caleb Williams 2+ pass TDs + Over 46.5
31%22% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +225.
Sam Darnold 2+ pass TDs + Over 46.5
34%26% if unrelated
The over hits 68% of the time when a QB scores twice through the air, 34% when he doesn't. Fair price for both: +194.
The links are averages for every starter at the position since 2016, applied to these players' chances. Not numbers for these players alone.
Matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces, from the power rankings (1 is best; for a defense, a high number gives up a lot).
Power rankings for all 32 teams →
Game lines
What games with a line like this have done, 2006–2026. Tap + to add one to your slip.
Our total, 47.3, comes from both teams' expected touchdowns (2.9 points each), how the two offenses and two defenses have played per snap, and the wind. Left out because they added nothing in testing: pace, projected yards, a dome flag, cold. It is a way to read the game, not a pick against the line.
▸Every alternate line, and your own · the chance and fair price at each spread and total
Spread
Total
Your line
47%
win
9%
push
44%
lose
Fair price −105 · at −110 it's about fair
Pick the bet your book offers and type its price. The chances are the share of past games with a line like this one.
Build a teaser from every leg that works →
Our picks on this game
No pick from us on this game.